Predicting Reservoir Performance Through Risk Analysis and Hydrocarbon Prospects Ranking For Improved Economic Recovery in The Eastern Niger Delta

Abstract

This study evaluated reservoir performance, hydrocarbon prospectivity, and economic potential in the Eastern Niger Delta using integrated well-log interpretation, three-dimensional seismic analysis, petrophysical modelling, volumetric estimation, and probabilistic risk analysis. Seven wells and a three-dimensional seismic dataset were analysed to identify and characterize four reservoir units, designated Reservoirs A–D. Reservoir C was selected for detailed evaluation because of its favourable sandstone development, high resistivity response, and relatively good reservoir properties. Its gross thickness ranged from 132 to 267 ft, while net sand thickness varied from 49.30 to 144.23 ft and net-to-gross ratio from 0.40 to 0.91. Mean effective porosity ranged from approximately 0.19 to 0.25, while mean permeability varied from 485 to 1,840 mD. Mean water saturation was approximately 0.29–0.33 in the evaluated wells, indicating generally favourable hydrocarbon saturation in selected intervals. Seismic interpretation identified several faults and structural closures that may influence reservoir compartmentalization and hydrocarbon accumulation. Deterministic and probabilistic volumetric analyses were performed to quantify hydrocarbon potential and uncertainty associated with reservoir geometry, petrophysical properties, and fluid-contact depth. Economic screening ranked Prospect B first, with a reported P50 economic value of approximately US$1,349.2 million, followed by Prospect C at US$1,343.2 million and Prospect A at US$1,243.8 million. The findings indicate that Prospects B and C are the most attractive targets for further appraisal. However, additional well data, oil–water contact confirmation, fault-seal analysis, dynamic simulation, and detailed economic evaluation are required before development decisions are made.